The Durbin Watson (DW) statistic is a test for autocorrelation in the residuals from a statistical model or regression analysis.
The Durbin-Watson statistic will always have a value ranging between 0 and 4. A value of 2.0 indicates there is no autocorrelation detected in the sample. Values from 0 to less than 2 point to positive autocorrelation and values from 2 to 4 means negative autocorrelation.
Autocorrelation, also known as serial correlation, can be a significant problem in analyzing historical data if one does not know to look out for it. For instance, since stock prices tend not to change too radically from one day to another, the prices from one day to the next could potentially be highly correlated, even though there is little useful information in this observation. In order to avoid autocorrelation issues, the easiest solution in finance is to simply convert a series of historical prices into a series of percentage-price changes from day to day.
references:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durbin-watson-statistic.asp
No comments:
Post a Comment