**Example of a Type 1 Error:**
---
### **Scenario: Medical Testing for a Disease**
- **Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\))**: The patient does **not** have the disease.
- **Alternative Hypothesis (\(H_a\))**: The patient **has** the disease.
---
### **What Happens in a Type 1 Error:**
1. **Reality**: The patient is actually **healthy** (null hypothesis is **true**).
2. **Test Result**: The diagnostic test incorrectly shows **positive** for the disease.
3. **Decision**: Doctor rejects the null hypothesis and concludes the patient **has** the disease.
4. **Outcome**: **False positive** – the patient is told they have a disease they don't actually have.
---
### **Consequences:**
- Unnecessary stress and anxiety for the patient
- Further invasive testing that wasn't needed
- Wasted medical resources
- Potential side effects from unnecessary treatment
---
### **Statistical Context:**
- **Significance level (α)**: The probability of making a Type 1 error
- If α = 0.05, there's a 5% chance of rejecting a true null hypothesis
- In our example: 5% chance of diagnosing a healthy person as sick
---
### **Other Real-World Examples:**
1. **Justice System**: Convicting an innocent person (null: defendant is innocent)
2. **Quality Control**: Rejecting a good batch of products (null: batch meets quality standards)
3. **Drug Testing**: Concluding a drug works when it doesn't (null: drug has no effect)
---
**Type 1 errors represent "false alarms" – we see an effect that isn't really there.**
No comments:
Post a Comment